Diskussion kring vad USGS 2000 innehåller

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Diskussion kring vad USGS 2000 innehåller

Inläggav Svempa » 14 apr 2007 22:10

Jag upprepar först länken till USGS 2000 (finns bland "Viktiga länkar"):

http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/

Ett rent epokgörande dokument, omfattande 30000 sidor, men vars slutsatser och framtidsprojektioner kan diskuteras.

En grundlig analys av USGS 2000 kan man hitta här: http://www.energybulletin.net/2544.html

Ett utdrag:

"If we take seriously the values indicated as “mean”, this would mean that every year 55 Gb of new oil would have to be added to the reserves, originating either from new discoveries or from reassessments of existing fields. In fact, however, reported reserves have been staying roughly constant. Currently discoveries and reassessments correspond approximately with annual consumption - which amounted to about 27 Gb in 2002. Hence, the USGS study assumes that in future on average this value will be at least twice as high than in the past.

As a matter of fact, between 1995 and 2002 in total only 107 Gb were discovered and 110 Gb were added by reassessing existing fields [24]. According to the USGS projections (“mean”), however, in this period 219 Gb should have been found and 170 Gb should have been added due to reassessments, whereas the amounts to be expected with a probability of 95% did materialize. After one quarter of the forecasting period has now passed, the real development lags far behind the USGS projections. In order to achieve the “mean” projections even roughly, in future much more oil than ever before has to be found. This seems to be the most unlikely of all possible future developments! There is not a single indication that the USGS estimates, apart from the 95% probability values, have anything to do with reality."
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