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Inläggav Svempa » 10 jul 2007 15:41

IEA Warns of '12 Supply Crunch on Rising Oil Demand
by Ayesha Daya
Tue, Jul 10, 2007 04:13 GMT

DUBAI - The International Energy Agency Monday predicted that stronger energy demand, particularly from the Middle East and Asia, and a pessimistic outlook for new oil production will buoy oil and gas prices and eat into spare oil capacity to cause a global oil supply crunch by 2012.

In its medium-term oil market forecast until 2012, the energy security watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that annual global oil demand growth of 2.2%, with non-OECD consumption rising three times as fast as in the OECD, could surpass growth in oil capacity by 2012.

Natural gas markets are even more at risk of failing to meet demand, the agency said. While fuel oil has historically been the substitute in the event of gas supply problems, be it a hurricane in the U.S. or politically motivated interruptions in Europe, the combination of meager spare oil capacity and delayed new output will tighten fuel oil supplies, raising 'serious concerns' for gas market security.

Expanding demand growth will provide ongoing support to oil prices, and falling gas supply in IEA member countries will put pressure on that market too to ensure buoyed gas prices.

Non-OECD Demand Soars

Emerging markets' energy-intensive industrialization efforts will cause oil demand in non-OECD countries to increase more than three times as fast as in OECD economies, the report said. By the end of 2012, non-OECD demand will account for almost 46% of total global demand, compared with slightly above 42% in 2007, and could even surpass OECD consumption by the middle of next decade as these new consumers reach the level of income necessary - around $3,000 per capita - to buy energy-consuming goods, such as cars.

Transportation fuel demand growth will drive OECD oil product demand to rise by 1% a year, from 49.6 million barrels a day in 2007 to 52.1 million barrels a day in 2012. North American consumption is poised to grow twice as fast as in Europe or the Pacific - 1.3% per year on average versus 0.7% and 0.6% in the latter two regions.

Asia and the Middle East will lead non-OECD oil demand to increase by 3.6% over the same period, from 36.6 million barrels a day to 43.7 million. Transportation fuels are expected to represent roughly 67% of the increase in OECD consumption and about 60% of the rise in non-OECD demand.

Spare Oil Capacity Pressured

This accelerating demand, together with project slippage and geopolitical problems has led to downward revisions of spare capacity held by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC crude capacity, rising to 38.4 million barrels a day in 2012 from a 2007 average of 34.4 million barrels, will be constrained by ongoing security and investment issues in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela. Some 70% of the increase comes from Saudi Arabia, adding 1.8 million barrels a day, with a further 1 million barrels a day coming from both the United Arab Emirates and Angola together, and smaller amounts elsewhere.

Spare capacity held by OPEC, around 3 million barrels a day currently, will increase through 2009 before declining sharply again from 2010 onwards owing to lower expectations of non-OPEC production as projects are delayed.

These delays, as well as a tendency for unscheduled field outages, have forced the agency to further revise downwards the non-OPEC forecast. It has now cut 0.8 million barrels a day from 2011 predictions, following an initial 1.1 million barrel-a-day revision. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to reach 52.2 million barrels a day by 2011.

© 2007 Dow Jones Newswires.
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